Service Plays Monday 11/16/09

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

norm hitzges

Double Play

Baltimore -10.5 vs Cleveland

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

pointwise phones

1* clev (monday)

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Don Wallace Sports

Cleveland +11

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

The Boss

100% Silent Assassins
Baltimore

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

GAMEDAY SPORTS

"Lean" to Cleveland vs Baltimore

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Here are the picks from week 10:

Steve Fezzik selected:
1. Cleveland Browns +11


Tim Trushel selected:
1. Cleveland Browns +11

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL DUNKEL

MONDAY, NOVEMBER 16

Game 243-244: Baltimore at Cleveland
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore 139.210; Cleveland 120.543
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 18 1/2; 43
Vegas Line: Baltimore by 10 1/2; 40
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (-10 1/2); Over

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL LONG SHEET

Week 10

Monday, November 16

BALTIMORE (4 - 4) at CLEVELAND (1 - 7) - 11/16/2009, 8:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BALTIMORE is 19-8 ATS (+10.2 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
BALTIMORE is 19-8 ATS (+10.2 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
BALTIMORE is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points over the last 2 seasons.
BALTIMORE is 16-5 ATS (+10.5 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
BALTIMORE is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
BALTIMORE is 3-2 against the spread versus CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
BALTIMORE is 3-2 straight up against CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL SHORT SHEET

Week 10

Monday, November 16

BALTIMORE at CLEVELAND, 8:35 PM ET ESPN
BALTIMORE: 16-5 ATS on grass
CLEVELAND: 6-0 Under off non-conference game

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL ADDITIONAL

Week 10

Monday, November 16,

8:30 PM
BALTIMORE vs. CLEVELAND
Baltimore is 9-4 ATS in its last 13 games on the road
Baltimore is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Cleveland is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing Baltimore
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Cleveland's last 6 games when playing Baltimore

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL WRITE-UP

Week 10 NFL games

Monday, November 16

Ravens (4-4) @ Browns (1-7)-- Hideous Cleveland likely to go back to Quinn at QB this week, after they scored total of 29 points in last four games (two TDs on last 43 drives). Browns (+13.5) got squashed 34-3 in Baltimore back in Week 3 (outgained 479-186), as Ravens averaged 8.9 ypp and had TO ratio of +3. Ravens lost four of last five games; they're 3-2 as favorite, with wins by 14-5-31-23 points. Three of last four Baltimore games, five of Browns' last seven games stayed under total. Ravens won here 37-27 LY, after losing three of previous four visits to this site. Underdogs are 5-1 vs spread in AFC North games this season, with Browns' loss in Baltimore the only setback

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

THE SPORTS ADVISORS

MONDAY, NOVEMBER 16

NFL

Baltimore (4-4, 5-3 ATS) at Cleveland (1-7, 3-5 ATS)

The Ravens travel to Cleveland Stadium looking to hand the hapless Browns a fourth straight loss in a battle between AFC North rivals.

Baltimore, which started the season 3-0 SU and ATS but is currently on a 1-4 SU (2-3 ATS) slide, is coming off last Sunday’s 17-7 loss at Cincinnati as a three-point road favorite. The Ravens’ vaunted defense ranks just 13th in the NFL, allowing 320.6 total yards per game, and it is 19th when defending the pass, allowing 225.8 ypg. Meanwhile the offense is 10th in the league, averaging 358.2 yards per contest and 11th in the passing game, netting 242.1 ypg through the air.

Cleveland, outscored 61-9 in its last two games, hasn’t been able to score more than 20 points in any game this season, scoring 14 points or less in four straight contests (7.25 ppg). Additionally, the Browns have produced a single field goal in two games and six points in three others, including a 30-6 loss in Chicago back on Nov. 1 before getting a bye last week. The Browns are dead last in the league in scoring offense (9.8 ppg), 31st in total offense (221.1 ypg) and dead last in passing offense (121.5 ypg).

With their offense stuck in a season-long funk, the Browns are making another QB switch this week, going back to original starter Brady Quinn in place of Derek Anderson. Quinn completed close to 60 percent of his throws in starting the first three games of the season but had just 409 yards, one TD and three INTs, with Cleveland tallying 29 total points while going 0-3 SU and ATS.

The Ravens have won three in a row SU and ATS in this series, including a 34-3 blowout win back on Sept. 27, easily cashing as 13½-point favorites. Baltimore QB Joe Flacco threw for 342 yards in that game, and the Ravens’ defense picked off four passes, including one from Quinn in the first half and three from Anderson in the second half. Baltimore is just 1-4 ATS in its last four trips to Cleveland, and the home team is on an 8-3 ATS run in this rivalry.

Baltimore’s current 1-4 slump includes three straight road losses (1-2 ATS). Meanwhile, the Browns have lost all three home games (1-2 ATS).

The Ravens are on positive ATS runs of 20-8 overall, 12-5 against AFC teams, 9-4 on the road, 5-1 after a straight-up loss and 10-3 as a favorite, but they’re just 2-9 ATS in their last 11 as a road chalk. Cleveland is on nothing but negative ATS streaks, including 3-10-1 overall, 1-6-1 at home, 1-4-1 in November and 2-9-1 after a straight-up loss. The lone bright spot for the Browns: They went 2-1 SU and ATS in Monday Night Football last year, including a 35-14 rout of the undefeated Giants as a nine-point home underdog.

Baltimore has topped the total in six of nine November games, seven of nine against losing teams, 10 of 14 on the road (4-1 last five) and four straight Monday contests, however the Ravens have stayed under the total in four straight as a favorite and four of five against AFC teams. The Browns are on “under” streaks of 5-2 overall, 6-2-1 after an ATS loss, 5-2 against the AFC and 18-8-1 on grass.

The over is 4-1-1 in the last six clashes in this rivalry, and the over is 19-6-1 in Monday Night Football games dating back to last season (8-2 this year).

ATS ADVANTAGE: BALTIMORE and OVER


NBA

Portland (8-3 SU and ATS) at Atlanta (8-2 SU, 9-1 ATS)

Two of the hottest teams in the NBA square off inside Philips Arena as the Trailblazers conclude a five-game road trip with a battle against the Hawks.

Portland has rattled off six straight wins and spread-covers, including all four so far on this road trip. Most recently, the Blazers beat the Bobcats 80-74 on Saturday, cashing as a 2½-point favorite. Portland’s defense is allowing just 83.3 points per game on the road while limiting the opposition to 40 percent shooting from the field. Since a season-opening a 111-107 loss at Houston on Halloween, the Blazers have given up 97 points or fewer in nine straight games, holding six of those opponents to 84 points or less and three of the last four to less than 80 points.

Atlanta has won four in a row SU and ATS and crushed the Hornets 121-98 as a 12½-point home favorite Saturday. The Hawks are perfect at home this season at 4-0 SU and ATS, averaging 116.5 points a game while allowing just 99.

These squads met back on Nov. 3 in Portland with the Hawks getting the 97-91 upset win as seven-point underdogs. Atlanta has won two straight in this series, including a 98-80 win in March as a four-point home chalk. The visitor is on a 10-2 ATS run in this rivalry, with the Blazers going 5-1 ATS in their last six trips to Atlanta. Also, the underdog has cashed in eight of the last 10 meetings.

Portland comes into this one on several positive ATS streaks, including 24-9 overall, 5-0 on the road, 7-1 on Monday, 5-0 after a spread-cover and 6-1 on the road against teams with a winning home record. Meanwhile, the Hawks are on a plethora of positive ATS runs, including 9-1-1 overall, 18-7-2 at home, 12-3-1 against the Western Conference, 5-0-1 against Northwest Division teams and 3-0-2 on Monday.

The Blazers are on a number of “under” trends, including 12-3 overall, 16-5 on the road, 19-7 on the road against opponents with winning home records, 5-1 against Southeast Division teams and 5-2 against the Eastern Conference. Atlanta has topped the total in four of five against the Western Conference and five of six overall, but it also carries “under” streaks of 7-1 on Monday and 8-3 after getting a day off. Finally, in this matchup, the “over” has been the play in eight of the last 11 meetings.

ATS ADVANTAGE: ATLANTA


Dallas (7-3 SU and ATS) at Milwaukee (5-2 SU and ATS)

The Bucks look to win their fifth straight game when they welcome the Mavericks to the Bradley Center in Milwaukee.

Dallas comes in off Sunday’s 95-90 victory in Detroit, barely cashing as a 4½-point favorite. The Mavericks have won two of their first three on a four-game road trip (2-1 ATS), and they’re 4-1 SU and ATS in their last five overall. The SU winner has covered the spread in each of the Mavericks’ 10 games this season. Going back to last year, the winner has cashed in 24 of Dallas’ last 26 outings.

Milwaukee has won four straight (3-1 ATS), including all three on a current six-game homestand. Rookie Brandon Jennings scored 55 points on Saturday, including 29 in the third quarter, to lead the Bucks to a 129-125 win over Golden State. However, Milwaukee came up short as 7½-point home favorite, ending a 5-0 ATS run. The Bucks are averaging 108.8 ppg at home (47.5 percent shooting, tallying 102, 108 and 129 in the last three.

The home team has won five straight (3-2 ATS) and seven of the last eight (6-2 ATS) in this series. Last January at the Bradley Center, the Bucks crushed Dallas 133-99 as a one-point home ‘dog, but went to Dallas a month later and lost 116-96 as a 7½-point pup. Milwaukee is 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings with the Mavericks, all as an underdog. Meanwhile, Dallas has failed to cover in nine straight games inside the Bradley Center.

The Mavericks are 7-2 ATS in their last nine overall, but otherwise are on pointspread slides of 3-5 against the Eastern Conference, 10-24-1 against Central Division teams, 1-4 on the second night of a back-to-back, 0-4 on Monday and 2-5 on the road against teams with a winning home record. Meanwhile, Milwaukee is on ATS surges of 5-1 overall, 5-1 at home, 4-1 after getting a day off, 11-3 against Southwest Division teams and 7-2 on Monday.

Dallas has stayed under the total in 16 of 21 when playing the second night of a back-to-back and eight of 10 Monday games. The Bucks are on “under” runs of 6-2-1 overall and 5-1 on Monday, but they’ve topped the total in four of five against the Western Conference and 21 of 31 against Southwest Division teams.

Finally, the “over” is 13-3 in the last 16 meetings between these squads (3-0 last three) and 6-2 in the last eight in Milwaukee.

ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

JB'S COMPUTER PICKS

Baltimore Ravens -10½

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports
354 - 243 run 58 %

Free winner Pacific + 2

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Mighty Quinn

Mighty hit with the the Chiefs ( 2) Sunday.

Today it's Hofstra. The surplus is 605 sirignanos.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

The Gold Sheet

MONDAY, NOVEMBER 16

*Baltimore 29 - CLEVELAND 9—Cleveland is looking for some good news
after scoring only five offensive TDs in the first half of the season, then seeing
fired GM George Kokinis escorted from the premises, and later hearing RB
Jamal Lewis 349 YR, 3.6 ypc) announce he is retiring at the end of the season.
Said HC Eric Mangini at one point, “This is a process.” Doubt that seeing his QBs
collect 3 TD passes vs. 12 ints. in half a season was part of the process the onetime
“Man-genius” had in mind. Meanwhile, John Harbaugh’s rugged Ravens
are 10-3 when favored. CABLE TV—ESPN
(09-BALT. 34-Cle. 3...B.28-11 B.28/142 C.23/71 B.26/37/0/337 C.17/27/4/115 B.1 C.0)
(08-BALT. 28-Cle. 10...B.21-11 B.44/151 C.15/73 B.13/19/2/122 C.14/37/3/96 B.0 C.0)
(08-Balt. 37-CLE. 27...B.21-14 B.41/193 C.23/64 B.17/29/0/236 C.17/33/1/210 B.0 C.1)
(09-BALT. -13' 34-3; 08-BALT. -2' 28-10, Balt. +1' 37-27...SR: Baltimore 14-7)

MONDAY NIGHT HISTORY

Baltimore and Cleveland on Monday Night
Baltimore is 1-6 straight-up and 4-3 vs. the pointspread on the road on
Monday Night Football; 3-1 straight-up and 3-1 vs. the pointspread at
home on Monday Night Football. Cleveland is 11-8 straight-up and 12-7
vs. the pointspread at home on Monday Night Football; 4-5 straight-up and
4-5 vs. the pointspread on the road on Monday Night Football.

 

[backdoorcover1]

Brandon Lang Monday's Selections ...
NOTE: Redemption.

Off the tough Saturday I had to step up and deliver for the 2nd straight week in the NFL, and I did just that with the Chargers and the Patriots.

Lions would have been nice but the early 45 yard miss by Mr. Automatic Jason Hanson of the Lions came back to haunt me just as I knew it would.

Still, you look at the last 2 weeks in the NFL and you will see a perfect 3-0 last Sunday with the 25 dime winner on the Chargers over the Giants, 10 dime winner on Carolina over Saints and a free pick on Seattle over Detroit.

Last Monday night the Steelers followed by Thursday night's Niners over the Bears followed by yesterday's Chargers, Patriots and free pick winner on the Chiefs.

Do the math. 8-0-1 NFL run the last 2 weeks with paid and comp plays. 8-0-1. Did I say 8-0-1?

The 2nd half of this NFL season is going exactly the way I felt it would. I have seen everyone play enough and in my 20 years in this business I have never felt this dialed in. NEVER.

Tonight I push it to 9-0-1 and get ready for Thursday's Dolphins-Panthers matchup Thursday night.

Now here is why I feel the 6-point teaser is the way to go with the Ravens and Browns tonight.

15 DIME, 2-TEAM TEASER - BALTIMORE & OVER - 2-TEAM 6-POINT TEASER RAVENS (-5) and OVER (32 1/2)

Only one way to go in this game tonight and it's Baltimore.

Most of the time you start getting into weeks 9 and 10 in the NFL and you see teams improving.

Look at the 1 win Rams taking the Saints to the wire yesterday. How about Tampa Bay doing the same to Miami.

However, you look at the Browns and you don't see improving. You see implosion everywhere. From the front office down to the coaching staff, this team is so finished this year all that is left is what the final record will be.

The last 2 weeks before their bye week they have gotten destroyed by Green Bay 31-3 and the next week at Chicago 30-6.

Do you really think a week off will make any difference at all facing a Ravens team that just dominated them 34-3 in the first meeting? I don't.

Do I think Cleveland can make it competitive? Sure. Just like they did against the Giants on Monday night last year.

Cleveland was coming out of their bye week and caught the undefeated Giants in a perfect let down spot and beat them 35-14 as 8 point underdogs.

However, the Browns are not playing an NFC opponent in this spot but an angry and proud Ravens team that will not take this game lightly in front of a national tv audience.

Ray Lewis has flat out too much pride along with Ed Reed to allow a SU loss to a inferior opponent like the Browns on Monday night.

However, laying double digits with anybody on Monday night is always a risky proposition but so is backing the Browns and sitting back and watch them get blown out and then asking yourself why you took a shot with such a bad team.

In their 8 games this year the Browns have been competitive in only 2. At home in week 4 versus the Bengals losing 23-20 in perhaps their best played game of the year and the following week at Buffalo getting their first win 6-3.

I'm sorry folks but the clear cut right side of this game is the Ravens and to protect myself from any Monday night madness, or backdoor scenario's, I am going to play a 2-team 6-point teaser.

I did this with Central Michigan over Toledo last Wednesday, and never had to sweat it at all and although I feel the same way with the Ravens tonight, I am going to do what I feel is the smart move when dealing with a double digit road favorite.

Let's take the Ravens from -11 down to -5 and bring the over/under down to 32 1/2 and roll with the over.

Wouldn't suprise me if this game fell in the neighborhood of 27-10, or 27-13, or even 27-20 with a Browns backdoor or kick return or punt return for a touchdown by Joshua Cribbs.

Ravens and over 6-point teaser style.

5 DIME - ATLANTA HAWKS - Love Atlanta in this spot.

Bottom line is you don't start rolling into Boston as a double digit road dog and beat the Celtics by double digits unless you are playing your best basketball of the year.

Fact of the matter is the Hawks are rolling and rolling large, and I really don't think this Blazers team is going to stop them.

Atlanta is on a tear since their double digit loss at Charlotte, a game I had the Bobcats as a 5 dime winner.

In fact, with exception of that no show by Atlanta, they have covered every single game this year. Think about that folks.

Atlanta has won their 4 home games this year by 11 over the Pacers, 11 over the Wizards, 25 over Denver and 23 over the Hornets.

They took care of the Blazers in Portland and I feel they will take care of them here as well.

Yes, the Blazers have played well on this road trip, but against who? Charlotte, New Orleans who lost Chris Paul in the first half, Minnesota and Memphis.

I don't see any teams in there the caliber of the Hawks now do you ?

Exactly. Atlanta is the play tonight.

FREE SELECTION - MILWAUKEE BUCKS

 

[ugk]

Win-or-lose 11/16

Look for more games today as many lines are not up yet.
Last post was 9:00 am EST

NCAA Football
Rot# Team Spread Line Wager
*** NO games

National Football League
Rot# Team Spread/Type Line Wager
243 Balt -10.5 -106 $7

National Hockey League
Rot# Team Spread Line Wager
3 NJ +1.5 -250 $8
6 BOS ML -165 $8
7 ANA ML +125 $3
7 ANA +1.5 -240 $11
11 TB +1.5 -285 $9

National Basketball Association (Remember we are Buying 2 Points)
Rot# Team Spread Line Wager
506 MIL +2 -155 $7

NCAA Basketball
Rot# Team Spread Line Wager
518 Pacific -2 -110 $6
538 Ariz State -24 -105 $7

 

[ugk]

Diceituponline - Fireman's NFL 11/16

Baltimore = -10 (Buy Hook) = 10 Dimes

20 Dimes worth of action riding on the Ravens tonight as we are taking them straight up for 10 Dimes and looking to close out our teaser Baltimore -.5 for 10 more Dimes